Tagged: Kotchman

Lowell’s Thumb a Blessing in Disguise

Thumb Injury

Today’s physical in Arlington came up with a radial collateral ligament
tear
in Mike Lowell‘s right thumb. Some Red Sox fans feel this is a
bad situation, whereas others are jumping for joy now that Lowell is sticking around
in Boston. He is scheduled for surgery just after Christmas, and should be out for
6-8 weeks. In other words, he should be healthy for Spring Training, and while his
throwing programs may be halted, the rest of his training program should be able to
go on as per usual, preventing him from a long recovery. Personally, I see this as a
blessing in disguise, and this is my reasoning:

  1. Lowell comes back in Spring Training and gets traded some time into the
    year
    : If this happens, either we can make the trade for Max
    Ramirez
    again, as double jeopardy doesn’t apply in baseball, or Epstein
    could look to another team that needs a decent DH. His value should be higher if
    Boston will still front the bill and he has proven himself to be healthy. If Max
    Ramirez was indeed a potential trading piece for Adrian Gonzalez,
    Epstein will find another way to get the prospect, or he will rearrange his
    bargaining chips and find another way to Gonzalez.
  2. Mike Lowell

  3. Lowell comes back in Spring Training and stays with Boston for the entirety
    of the year, playing 3B
    : If this happens, Boston keeps the offensive
    power of Lowell, while sacrificing the speed he lost last year, and taking a risk with
    his rumored decrease in defensive ability (which could become increasingly more
    true if his hip gets any worse). With the increased defense on the left side thanks
    to Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron/Jacoby Ellsbury, it
    shouldn’t be TOO much of a problem for the team. Who knows, maybe he’ll pull
    the hidden ball trick out of his hat a couple times this season to make up for his
    lack of physical ability (he’s
    done it twice before
    , afterall).
  4. Lowell proves to be a liability in the field and sits on the bench: If
    this happens, either Casey Kotchman becomes an everyday starter at
    first and Lowell sits on the bench, or Epstein has to work out a trade for a decent
    corner infielder during the season. The best way to account for this is to find said
    corner infielder before the beginning of the season and make Lowell work for a
    starting spot. However, I’m happy with Kotchman as a defensive replacement if
    Lowell doesn’t work out, as his strong defense will solidify the infield.
  5. Lowell turns into a part-time player in the field: If this occurs,
    Lowell would play fewer games, meaning Kevin Youkilis would play 3B
    on occasion while either Kotchman or Victor Martinez would find more
    time at 1B, potentially meaning Jason Varitek could find more time behind
    the plate. While I don’t feel Varitek should be behind the plate any more than
    necessary, it’s not a terrible alternative if Lowell can’t play everyday anymore.
    Lowell could also be used off the bench as a pinch hitter in crucial situations,
    which we all know he tends to thrive in.
  6. Mike Lowell

  7. Lowell platoons with David Ortiz as the DH: It was proven
    last year that Ortiz sometimes has trouble with quality pitching nowadays, so why
    not sit Lowell on the bench and use him against certain starters, or LH pitchers?
    Platooning these two players gives you the most optimal DH situation every game,
    and leaves a power hitter on the bench in case you need that bat later on in a
    game. Also, with Lowell being a DH, you get the capability of platooning him at 3B
    whenever someone else needs a day off, while keeping him fresh as well.

In my mind, the only bad thing that can come from this is that you’re stick with a $12
Million man sitting on your bench and/or eating up a spot on your 25-Man Roster that
could be used for another arm in the bullpen or a more capable utility fielder.
Although, the 25-Man Roster can be altered throughout the season, and others will
almost definitely get injured, so it’s not really an issue.

As you can see, it’s win-win for everyone in Red Sox Nation.

Mike Lowell

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Looking to 2011

With the signing of John Lackey and (potentially) Mike Cameron, I
can’t help but look to the future. Epstein always said he was building for the future,
and this is what it looks like for 2010:

With Adrian Gonzalez:

  1. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury
  2. 2B – Dustin Pedroia
  3. C – Victor Martinez
  4. 1B – Adrian Gonzalez
  5. 3B – Kevin Youkilis
  6. DH – David Ortiz
  7. RF – J.D. Drew
  8. LF – Mike Cameron/Jeremy Hermida
  9. SS – Marco Scutaro

Without Adrian Gonzalez:

  1. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury
  2. 2B – Dustin Pedroia
  3. C – Victor Martinez
  4. 1/3B – Kevin Youkilis
  5. DH – David Ortiz
  6. RF – J.D. Drew
  7. LF Mike Cameron/Jeremy Hermida
  8. 1/3B – Casey Kotchman (Adrian Beltre)
  9. SS – Marco Scutaro

That lineup looks significantly more powerful with Adrian Gonzalez in there. If
Adrian Beltre signs instead, you’re looking at something slightly different.
Either way, even if you keep it the way it is now, you’re looking at a team that can
support the superior pitching staff. World Series caliber? Maybe not. Our offense
probably can’t beat that of the Phillies or the Yankees, but when all is said and done,
adding Adrian Gonzalez means a Boston team that’s somewhat equal (on paper,
statistically, anyway) to the offensive numbers of the Yankee collective. Even if
Epstein deals Jacoby Ellsbury to San Diego with Clay Buchholz,
you’ve got a decent outfield of Drew/Hermida/Cameron, and if you add someone like
Xavier Nady to that mix, you’re looking at a great team with Adrian Gonzalez
spearheading it. Welcome to the playoffs.

Now, a look at the pitching staff.

With Adrian Gonzalez:

  1. SP – Josh Beckett
  2. SP – John Lackey
  3. SP – Jon Lester
  4. SP – Daisuke Matsuzaka
  5. SP – Tim Wakefield
  6. RP – Hideki Okajima
  7. RP – Ramon Ramirez
  8. RP – Ramon Ramirez (this is going to be a confusing year … )
  9. RP – Manny Delcarman
  10. RP – Boof Bonser (Or maybe Michael Bowden?)
  11. RP – Daniel Bard
  12. CL – Jonathan Papelbon

Without Adrian around you essentially have the same setup, except you see
Buchholz in the rotation and probably Wakefield in the ‘pen. Either way, arguably the
best staff in baseball. Where the bullpen lacks in depth, the starting rotation makes
up for in pure number of Aces. Three Number 1 guys and 2 interesting additions in
the back of the rotation equals quality starts more often than not, and a solid rotation
to help the relatively lacking offense.

Maybe 2010 is still the bridge year, though. It’s hard to imagine this when you add
over $30 Million in payroll, but hear me out.

Joe Mauer

The 2010 Free Agent market includes the likes of Joe Mauer, Carl
Crawford
, Cliff Lee (as he likely won’t sign an extension with Seattle),
and Brandon Webb. Epstein always preferred the 2010 market over the
2009 market, and he always said he was building up for it.

Brandon Webb

With Ortiz’s $13 Million coming off the books along with Victor Martinez’s $7.1 Million,
Beckett’s $12 Million and Varitek’s $3 Million, not to mention $19.5 Million owed to
Alex Gonzalez, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, and Billy Wagner, you’re looking at significant
money coming off the payroll.

In 2010, if you add Adrian Gonzalez, you’re
looking at a team payroll of about $150 Million. Upon the completion
of the season, it will drop to about $83 Million.

So what do you do in the 2010 offseason? You break the bank. You give contract
extensions to Beckett (who’s going to want a Lackey-like deal) and Martinez (who’s
going to want around $10 Million a year). After letting Ortiz and Varitek go, you go
out and sign Mauer (if you can pry him from Minnesota and the Yanks), Crawford (or
you trade for him during the 2010 season and sign him longterm), and either Lee
(who will want a Sabathia-like Contract) or Webb (who will want Lackey-like
terms).

Let’s run the figures again. 2011, pending all those moves, would bring the payroll
back up to between $160-$170 Million. Expensive, but look at that
potential Roster:

  1. SP – Cliff Lee (or Brandon Webb)
  2. SP – Josh Beckett
  3. SP – John Lackey
  4. SP – Jon Lester
  5. SP – Daisuke Matsuzaka
  6. CL – Jonathan Papelbon
  7. C – Joe Mauer
  8. 1B – Adrian Gonzalez
  9. 2B – Dustin Pedroia
  10. SS – Marco Scutaro
  11. 3B – Kevin Youkilis
  12. LF – Carl Crawford
  13. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury
  14. RF – J.D. Drew
  15. DH – Victor Martinez (keeps him fresh, but can give Mauer days off
    behind the plate without the team losing offense)
  16. RP – Daniel Bard
  17. RP – Tim Wakefield
  18. RP – Hideki Okajima
  19. RP – Manny Delcarman
  20. RP – Junichi Tazawa
  21. BC – Mark Wagner (Mostly a security policy in case the in-game
    catcher gets injured, so the DH doesn’t have to go behind the plate, making
    the pitcher have to hit)
  22. IF – Jose Iglesias (or Jed Lowrie if Iglesias isn’t ready for the
    bigs)
  23. IF – (Someone who can back up Youkilis at third)
  24. OF – Mike Cameron
  25. (Utility Fielder)

For $165 Million, if that can’t win a World Series, nothing can.

2007 World Series

2010 Lineup Full of Nobodies

  1. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury
  2. 2B – Dustin Pedroia
  3. C – Victor Martinez
  4. 3B – Kevin Youkilis
  5. DH – David Ortiz
  6. RF – J.D. Drew
  7. LF – Jeremy Hermida
  8. 1B – Casey Kotchman
  9. SS – Marco Scutaro

Looks a little weak, doesn’t it? No more Jason Bay, no more Mike
Lowell
. No more pop from the right side. Correction – no more pop. Period.
Good luck with Matt Holliday and Adrian Beltre, Theo … we all know
how well you work with Borasshole. Might as well just give up on both of those
players and treat this as the true bridge year you were talking about, because it
looks like Jeremy Hermida and Casey Kotchman are going to be our
starting fielders on opening day. Maybe if you’ve got some horseshoes up your ***
you’ll have an outside chance of competing for the Wild Card, but I wouldn’t count my
chickens.

Not to mention you blew it with Rich Harden – he offers the idea of playing on
a one year contract, and you let him go to Texas? You better have something big up
your sleeve coming after this Mike Lowell deal, or my head might explode.